Expert Perspectives on High-Quality Energy Development | Interpretation of the “15th Five-Year Plan” for Building a New-Type Power System (Part 4)

Accelerate innovation in power‑related science and technology, leveraging new‑type productive forces to advance the development of a next‑generation power system.

— Academician’s Commentary on the “15th Five-Year Plan” for Building a New-Type Power System

During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will enter a critical phase of accelerating the development of a new-type power system and achieving its carbon‑peak target. As new energy sources gradually become the primary driver of incremental power generation, the new power system is confronting deep‑seated challenges, including mounting pressure on the integration of wind and solar power, diminishing system inertia support, and escalating risks to safe operation. There is an urgent need for technological innovation to guide the structural reshaping and systemic reconstruction of the power system, expedite the emergence of new‑type productive forces, and promote high‑quality development in the sector. The “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a New‑Type Power System” (hereinafter referred to as the “Plan”) calls for accelerating the empowerment of new‑type productive forces in the power sector, articulating key tasks such as mastering core technologies and equipment for the new power system, deepening the application of artificial intelligence, and expediting the establishment of a standards framework. It has established a full‑chain innovation closed loop—spanning basic research, technological breakthroughs, engineering validation, widespread deployment, and standard‑driven advancement—providing fundamental support for fostering new‑type productive forces in the power sector and building a new‑type power system through high‑level scientific and technological self‑reliance and strength.

I. Accurately grasp the overarching trends of development and coordinate innovative pathways for the new power system.

During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China’s power system will undergo profound transformation. By 2030, total electricity consumption across society is projected to exceed 13 trillion kilowatt-hours, a 30% increase compared with the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan. The share of non‑fossil‑fuel generation is expected to surpass 50%, and efforts will be accelerated to ensure that all additional electricity demand is met by new clean‑energy capacity. The power‑supply mix will shift rapidly toward non‑fossil sources, the grid will evolve from a traditional rigid network to a new, flexible, interconnected system, load characteristics will upgrade from relative stability to proactive flexibility, and the ways in which non‑electric applications of renewable energy are utilized will continue to expand. The Plan aligns closely with these development trends, strategically mapping out pathways for each segment—generation, transmission, distribution, and consumption—and establishing a comprehensive, system‑wide deployment that spans every stage of the value chain.

On the supply side, the energy system is accelerating its transition toward a model in which new renewable sources drive incremental capacity and replace existing fossil‑fuel assets. By 2030, installed wind and solar capacity is expected to exceed 2.8 billion kilowatts, with non‑fossil‑fuel generation accounting for 65% of total installed capacity. There is an urgent need to vigorously expand wind and photovoltaic power, expedite the development of three major regional hubs—namely, the “Three North” desert, gobi, and arid areas; the Southwest’s “water‑wind‑solar” complex; and the eastern offshore sites—and to advance, in a scientifically sound manner, the large‑scale deployment of third‑generation nuclear power while demonstrating fourth‑generation nuclear technologies. At the same time, it is essential to actively develop next‑generation coal‑fired power technologies that offer flexible regulation and efficient operation across a wide load range, and to accelerate the engineering application of domestically developed gas turbines, thereby establishing an integrated power‑supply system characterized by complementary energy sources and coordinated support.

On the grid side, the power system is evolving from a large, rigid AC synchronous grid toward a flexible grid characterized by coordinated operation among regional grids, distribution networks, and microgrids, and by a high degree of power electronics. A national grid architecture based on regional grids and featuring asynchronous interconnections among them will accelerate its formation. By 2030, the capacity of “West-to-East Power Transmission” is expected to exceed 420 million kilowatts, while the distribution network will support the integration of 900 million kilowatts of distributed renewable energy. There is an urgent need to strengthen theoretical research on the design of next‑generation grid configurations, advance transmission projects—such as those in desert, gobi, and arid regions—that enable 100% renewable energy export, enhance cross‑regional transmission capabilities and the mutual support between regional grids, and elevate the level of multi‑tiered coordination among the main grid, distribution networks, and microgrids, thereby leveraging equipment innovation to underpin the evolution of the grid’s structure.

The demand side is shifting from passive electricity consumption to proactive, flexible interaction. By the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, peak‑shaving capacity on the demand side is expected to exceed 5% of maximum load, with efforts to achieve even higher levels. New business models such as vehicle‑to‑grid integration, virtual power plants, and coordinated computing‑electricity operations will scale up, while power system balancing will transition from a “generation follows load” paradigm to multi‑time‑scale, coordinated optimization across generation, grid, load, and storage. There is an urgent need to develop advanced load‑aggregation and control technologies, leveraging virtual power plants to aggregate distributed resources like charging stations, energy storage systems, and industrial loads. Furthermore, deepening the coordinated scheduling of computing power and electricity will enable new‑type loads, such as data centers, to participate in system‑wide interactions, thereby reshaping the load‑management paradigm through digital innovation.

The scale of non-electric applications, such as green‑power‑to‑hydrogen, continues to expand, providing crucial support for the integration of new energy. By 2030, renewable‑energy‑based hydrogen production is expected to reach 2 million tonnes, while hydrogen‑based fuels—including green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol—will see widespread adoption across power generation, transportation, chemical manufacturing, and metallurgy, thereby accelerating the growth of the hydrogen economy. There is an urgent need to achieve breakthroughs in key technologies spanning the entire hydrogen value chain—production, storage, transport, and utilization—such as flexible and high‑efficiency electrolytic hydrogen production, pipeline hydrogen delivery, low‑cost hydrogen storage, and hydrogen‑ammonia‑methanol synthesis, so as to progressively establish a new‑energy integration system that complements and synergizes with the emerging power grid.

II. Tackling Core Technologies and Equipment to Strengthen the Technological Foundation of the New Power System

Core technologies and equipment are the cornerstone for building a new‑type power system and the driving force behind its upgrading and transformation. The Plan lays out a systematic R&D roadmap covering system operation, advanced power sources, next‑generation grids, and energy storage, while calling for the large‑scale deployment of a suite of cutting‑edge technologies and equipment. This will help sustain the role of major projects in piloting technological validation and iterative upgrades, thereby providing robust technical and equipment support for the construction of a new‑type power system during the 15th Five‑Year Plan period.

First, strengthen the foundational theories and simulation technologies for power system planning and operation. Break new ground in key theoretical areas such as reliable capacity assessment of renewable energy, power‑load balance, coordinated planning of generation, grid, load, and storage, and coordinated operation of transmission, distribution, and microgrids; refine methods for evaluating adequacy, resilience, and economic performance; investigate the stability mechanisms of low‑inertia power systems, the dynamics of wide‑band oscillations and cascading failure propagation, and develop a new theoretical framework for the safe and stable operation of complex large‑scale grids; advance full‑electromagnetic transient simulation and digital twin technologies to enhance the capability to conduct scenario analyses under extreme weather conditions. Accelerate the development of independently controllable planning, simulation, and operational control software, establishing a technical platform characterized by unified modeling, seamless data integration, and seamless offline–online connectivity, thereby providing robust support for power system planning decisions and safe operations.

Second, we will achieve breakthroughs in advanced power‑generation technologies. We will tackle key challenges in high‑efficiency, high‑power renewable energy generation, driving upgrades to large‑capacity wind turbines, high‑efficiency photovoltaic cells and their critical materials and core components, thereby enhancing the active support and grid‑integration performance of renewables. We will also break through critical technologies for high‑head, large‑capacity impulse hydraulic turbine‑generator sets, strengthening their stable operation under complex hydraulic conditions and at high altitudes. Furthermore, we will advance research on cutting‑edge nuclear technologies such as integrated sodium‑cooled fast reactors and small/modular reactors, while intensifying efforts across the entire value chain—covering fundamental theory, critical materials, core equipment, and the fuel cycle.

Third, we must achieve breakthroughs in next-generation transmission and grid‑integration technologies. In light of the inverse spatial distribution between new‑energy resources and load centers, it is essential to enhance long‑distance, high‑capacity, low‑loss power transmission and inter‑regional mutual assistance capabilities. We will accelerate innovation in advanced DC transmission, flexible DC, and DC grid‑forming technologies, breaking through key technical barriers such as high‑power power‑electronics devices, novel converter topologies, DC circuit breakers, wide‑band oscillation suppression, and coordinated AC–DC control. Furthermore, we will advance the development of long‑distance AC/DC gas‑insulated metal‑enclosed transmission lines (GIL), ultra‑extra‑high‑voltage AC/DC cables, and critical equipment for ultra‑high altitudes and regions with high seismic intensity, overcoming challenges related to insulation, materials, thermal management, and seismic resistance.

Fourth, we will achieve breakthroughs in electro‑hydrogen synergy and cross‑timescale energy storage technologies. High‑proportion renewable energy systems experience fluctuations at the second‑ and minute‑scale, while also confronting inter‑day energy deficits. We will accelerate advances in key technologies such as green‑electricity‑driven hydrogen and ammonia production, hydrogen‑based power generation, hydrogen (and ammonia) co‑firing with conventional thermal power, and hydrogen‑based energy storage; launch electro‑hydrogen synergy demonstration projects; and promote the integrated development of green electricity and green hydrogen. We will also tackle long‑duration inter‑day energy and thermal storage technologies, enhance the safety, cost‑effectiveness, and lifespan of electrochemical energy storage, refine a diversified “electricity‑hydrogen‑heat” storage framework, and establish a technical system that seamlessly links short‑term power regulation with long‑term energy balancing.

III. Deepening AI-Driven Empowerment to Enhance Management Capabilities for Complex Power Systems

Artificial intelligence is a key driving force behind the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, providing crucial support for cultivating new‑type productive forces in the power sector. The Plan lays out specific measures to deepen the integration of AI across all stages and processes of building a next‑generation power system, actively promoting the synergistic development and pilot demonstrations of AI and the power industry, and advancing AI‑enabled applications from isolated explorations toward systematic, large‑scale deployment.

First, we will leverage artificial intelligence to empower the entire value chain of power planning and construction, dispatch and control, and market services. In the planning and construction phase, we will deploy intelligent applications such as electricity supply‑demand forecasting and automated planning‑scheme generation, while strengthening smart management of engineering projects. In the dispatch and control phase, we will advance AI‑driven sensing and scheduling, as well as intelligent fault diagnosis and protection technologies, driving a shift toward system operation and protection that is jointly powered by underlying mechanisms and data. In the market‑service phase, we will support power‑market clearing, risk analysis, and intelligent decision‑making, elevate the level of coordinated source‑grid‑load‑storage regulation, and achieve a leap toward “autonomous, AI‑based decision‑making.”

Second, we will establish a robust safety baseline for the development of artificial intelligence in the power sector. We will strengthen fundamental theoretical research on “AI+” applications in the power industry, promote the integration of AI‑based mechanistic models, simulation technologies, and data‑driven models, and enhance interpretability and robustness. We will build high‑quality power‑sector datasets and domain‑specific models, facilitate the compatibility of domestically developed chips and foundational software with power‑industry workflows, refine testing and validation frameworks, human–machine collaboration protocols, and tiered authorization mechanisms, and reinforce comprehensive security safeguards covering data, algorithms, models, and applications.

Third, we will consolidate a green foundation for artificial intelligence by fostering coordinated development between computing power and electricity. We will strengthen the integrated planning of computing‑power and power‑infrastructure networks, actively advance innovative models such as direct connections between computing power and green electricity and integrated source‑network‑load‑storage systems, and break through key technologies in areas like highly reliable power supply for computing and bidirectional time‑and‑frequency coordination between computing and electricity. In doing so, we will steadily increase the share of green electricity in computing‑power consumption and improve energy efficiency, continuously enhance the synergistic interaction between computing‑power grids and power grids, and achieve mutual empowerment—using electricity to bolster computing and using computing to drive greater electricity utilization.

IV. Accelerate the development of a standards system to guide technological and industrial advancement through standardized frameworks.

Standards serve as a crucial bridge for the commercialization of scientific and technological advances and form the foundation for the safe and orderly development of the new‑type power system. The Plan lays out a forward‑looking vision for building a standards framework for the new‑type power system, positioning the establishment of an intellectual property system as a key strategic pillar for securing China’s voice in global energy governance, thereby providing core support for transforming “China’s innovation” into “international standards.”

Coordinate all links across generation, grid, load, and storage to establish a full‑life‑cycle standards framework covering planning and design, equipment manufacturing, grid‑connection testing, dispatch and operation, market trading, and cybersecurity. Accelerate the development of standards for grid‑forming technologies, flexible DC transmission and DC‑based grid architectures, long‑duration energy storage, virtual power plants, and power‑system artificial intelligence, while refining specifications for model parameters, data interfaces, simulation testing, and validation and evaluation. Advance standard development in parallel with technological R&D, experimental verification, and engineering demonstrations, and actively participate in international standard‑setting efforts, ensuring that practical engineering experience is effectively translated into standardized advantages.

V. Enhance the collaborative innovation system and accelerate the development of new‑type productive forces in the power sector.

The 15th Five-Year Plan period marks a critical phase in which power‑sector science and technology is shifting from isolated breakthroughs to systemic capability enhancement. The Plan underscores the need to leverage scientific and technological innovation to drive the transformation of the new‑type power system, integrating such innovation deeply into the implementation of major tasks during this period. It calls for coordinated efforts to harness the roles of national laboratories, universities and research institutes, and leading technology enterprises, thereby fostering the deep integration of the innovation chain, industrial chain, financial chain, and talent chain.

First, we must strengthen the driving force of major national missions, focusing on “major tasks, major facilities, and major platforms,” to implement high‑quality national key science and technology programs such as the smart grid, while proactively planning for breakthrough research. Second, we need to enhance coordination among the nation’s strategic scientific and technological forces, continue advancing the construction of a national laboratory system in the energy and power sectors, fully leverage the role of enterprises as the main actors in technological innovation, and foster innovation consortia comprising user organizations, R&D institutions, and universities and research institutes, ensuring that research topics are rooted in engineering practice and that innovative outcomes are fed back into real‑world applications. Third, we must intensify the development of high‑level testing and pilot‑scale verification platforms, and refine mechanisms for the first‑of‑its‑kind equipment, diversified investment, and application evaluation. Fourth, we should bolster the cultivation of interdisciplinary talent, nurturing a cadre of scientific and technological leaders and innovative teams with strategic vision, strong engineering capabilities, and a global outlook.

Building a new‑type power system is a long‑term, arduous, and complex systems engineering endeavor that cannot be accomplished overnight, nor can it simply replicate foreign experiences. It requires steadfast adherence to national conditions—establishing the framework before dismantling the old—while ensuring safety and reliability and economic feasibility, and coordinating technological innovation with institutional reform. Looking ahead to the 15th Five-Year Plan period, we must firmly seize the opportunities presented by the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, boldly venture into uncharted territories in power‑related science and technology, accelerate breakthroughs in foundational, strategic, and cutting‑edge technologies, and translate more innovative achievements into advanced productive forces. By achieving high‑level self‑reliance and strength in power‑related science and technology, we will underpin the building of an energy‑strong nation and provide secure, reliable, green, and low‑carbon electricity to advance Chinese‑style modernization.